https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2020/09/14/models-now-suggest-this-factor-could-beat-the-market-by-8-a-year/?ss=investing#6b4998da7aa1
Sep 14, 2020, Simon Moore
Jinny 요약
Models suggest value may be set to outperform the broader market. Growth has seen a strong run, but it may prove hard to sustain in the coming years.
The relative valuation gap between value and the broader market is now wide and growth looks expensive in a similar way.
The evidence is mounting that value will likely enjoy a comeback, just as it has in previous eras. Of course, we don’t know when, and the gap between value and growth has persisted longer than many anticipated. Still, the setup for value in the U.S. is attractive compared to much of history.
Julie 요약
Research Affiliates share a set of factor models that they call Smart Beta Interactive. Value currently offers the prospect of the highest estimated return on a 5-year view as of the end of June.
Growth has outperformed value by about 7% a year for a decade now. The gap between value and growth has persisted longer than many anticipated. However, the setup for value in the U.S. is attractive compared to much of history.
The relative valuation gap between value and the broader market is now wide and growth looks expensive in a similar way. The future may not be as certain as it appears to growth investors. Issues from regulation to taxation to technological shifts could weigh on today’s major growth names in the coming years.
Most models are just showing relative outperformance for value. However, timing will be the most concerns. If it coincide with bear market, growth stocks falling heavily could close the gap, rather than value stocks rising. That outcome would be less pleasant for most investors.
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